Posted by Rewan Tremethick on March 4th, 2016.
Polls are used to help give a greater understanding of voter sentiment, but in the case of the ‘Brexit’ they are mostly adding to the general confusion. It’s only been a few weeks since the date of the UK’s European Union Referendum was announced as the 23rd of June 2016, yet a plethora of surveys have already been conducted.
With each poll differing in its conclusion, it’s better to look at the overall trends among results. To that end, we’ve collected the latest survey data from a number of sources to show you how voters, businesses, politicians and bookies in the UK feel about a potential split from the EU. We’ll be updating these ‘Brexit’ referendum polls on a regular basis to include the latest data.
While reading these polls, it’s useful to remember that the methods used to collect the data often seem to have an impact upon the result. It’s becoming an apparent trend that polls conducted over the phone tend to see a greater support for the ‘In’ campaign, while polls online suggest that support for the rival campaign is much closer. Also, polls conducted by newspapers could be affected by the bias amongst their readership.
While analysing the latest polls we’re also conducting our own, share your opinion on whether the UK should stay or go.
A YouGov poll had previously found that support for a ‘Brexit’ had a 9-point lead at the beginning of February, but following Cameron’s new deal, the body polled 3,482 people and found that support for the ‘Out’ campaign had fallen to just one point ahead of the ‘In’ camp, at 38%.
According to a ComRes poll of 1,000, conducted by telephone, the ‘In’ campaign was in the lead, with 51% of voters, compared to 39% who would vote to leave.
The British Social Attitudes Survey, which uses what is regarded as the highly accurate ‘random sampling’ method, found in face-to-face interviews that 60% of respondents wanted Britain to remain in the EU, while 30% supported a ‘Brexit’.
The impact a split from the European Union could have upon Pound Sterling is a primary concern to voters, with a recent phone survey of 1,002 people finding that 43% of respondents claim the value of the Pound will be a major factor in helping them decide which way to vote. The impact a split from the EU could have is concerning to 55% of people, with 61% of women citing it as a major concern.
ORB International questioned 2,000 people at the end of February and discovered that attitudes towards a ‘Brexit’ have reversed, with the ‘Leave’ camp now supported by 52%, with 48% backing the ‘Stay’ campaign. The study found that age and social class are important factors, with those over 65 twice as likely to vote to leave as those outside that age bracket. People categorised as AB’s are more likely to want to remain, while DE’s tend to support a ‘Brexit’.
One in four voters has seen their opinion shifted in favour of staying in the EU, while one in three have leaned towards supporting an exit, since both referendum campaigns were officially launched. Those who voted for the Conservative party in 2015 show a strong tendency to support a ‘Brexit’, with a split of 41% in favour to 24% against.
Overall, 44% of people agree with the Prime Minister that Britain is better off in the EU, compared to 39% who disagree. Within the Conservative party, sentiment is almost equally split, one point in favour of those who contend his claims. 60% of people are unaffected by Boris Johnson’s support of a ‘Brexit’, while 26% say they are now more likely to vote to leave the EU. Almost half of voters agree that voting leave could inspire change within the EU, compared to 37% who disagree that this is the only way to see real reform.
Half of those polled agree that the economy is a more important issue than immigration for them when considering how to vote, while 35% believe immigration is the more pertinent subject.
A recent ICM tracker showed that both the Remain and Leave camps have the support of 41% of voters.
A poll in a Telegraph article shows that 72% of 197,915 voters believe Britain should leave the European Union, compared to 28% who think it should stay.
The Institute of Directors (IoD) and the EEF, the trade body for UK manufacturers, polled their members and found that over 60% support remaining in the European Union. 30% of the IoD members supported leaving the EU, while only 5% of EEF members were in favour of a ‘Brexit’. 80% of EEF members claimed that their stance had been unchanged by Cameron’s EU deal. Combined, the IoD and EEF represent 40,000 companies.
The IoD also found that 43% of 1,259 company directors believe the ‘Brexit’ would be a threat, compared to 9% who believe it would be an opportunity. 28% claimed it was too early to tell, citing the UK government’s intended post-‘Brexit’ strategy and the exit terms agreed with the EU as being major factors.
The ORB International poll found that 81% of politicians and business owners agreed there was some risk of a ‘Brexit’.
The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, representing car manufacturers including BMW, GM and Toyota, showed that 77% believed remaining part of the EU offered the best prospects for their business.
A YouGov poll of 15 members of the FTSE 100 or FTSE 250 and 500 small businesses found that nearly half (47%) wished Britain to remain a part of the European Union, while 42% wanted to leave.
ComRes found that 52% of Conservative voters admit that they could change their mind regarding a ‘Brexit’ between now and the June 23rd referendum.
The first YouGov poll following the announcement of David Cameron’s reform deal showed that a quarter of respondents were either uncertain or not planning on voting.
The latest ICM tracker shows 18% of voters have yet to make up their minds.
The data from ComRes shows that 68% of Conservative voters viewed Boris Johnson favourably, while 88% had a positive opinion of David Cameron.
A Reuters poll of 45 strategists found that none believed the UK economy would benefit in the event of a ‘Brexit. 39 claimed a split would be damaging for the UK, with 6 opining that it would make little difference.
Bookies currently have a 71% probability of a victory for the ‘In’ campaign. According to Ladbrokes, the margin of bets for a ‘Leave’ victory is currently 62-38, while the balance of cash staked on a ‘Remain’ victory is at 74-26. According to Ladbrokes, this suggests a similar pattern to the Scottish Referendum, where ideological believers in the cause are betting in favour of a ‘Brexit’, while those backing a ‘Bremain’ could be investors who are anticipating the final result.
According to Odds Checker, 55% of the most popular bets are on Britain staying in the European Union, compared to 45% on leaving.
This list will be updated on a regular basis to make sure it includes all the latest polls and survey findings. You can also keep up to date with the impact of ‘Brexit’ news on Pound Sterling (GBP) in our currency news section and find out how an EU exit could impact Expats on our blog.
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